COP21 - Quo Vadis?

Source: "Another world is on her way " by Tony Webster from Portland, Oregon, United States - Another world is on her way. Licensed under CC BY 2.0 via Wikimedia Common

There has been a lot of talk about the upcoming climate change conference which will take place in Paris from the 30 November to the 11 December. But before I am going to talk about what the major discussion points are, who is taking part and what the outcomes are most likely going to look like, I will elaborate a little bit more about the background of the COP conferences and its history. After all we are talking about the 21st conference this year, which means that there have been 20 previous ones, and I am almost certain that before the COP15 in Copenhagen, the general public was mostly unaware of the UNFCC and the climate conferences it organizes. If you are already well informed on the history of the COP conferences then feel free to jump further down where I will attempt to predict the outcome of this year's conference.

A rough guide to COP

How did it all start and why did the UN feel compelled to organize a conference on this scale? Climate change became an increasingly pressing topic over the past 30 years and the first response to work against anthropogenic climate change was the Rio Earth Summit in 1992. One major outcome of the Rio Convention was the adoption of the UN Framework on Climate Change (UNFCC). "This convention set out a framework for action aimed at stabilising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" (as stated here: http://www.cop21paris.org). The UNFCC consist now of 195 member parties. And COP, by the way, stands for 'Conference of Parties', in case you were wondering.

So much about the background, but what is being discussed during the conferences? Well, the main objective is to regularly revisit and review the Convention's implementation process. The first COP took place in Berlin in 1995 and it did achieve some milestones ever since. On 11 December 1997 during the COP3 the Kyoto Protocol was signed, COP11 produced the Montreal Action Plan and COP17, which took place in Durban, saw the creation of the Green Climate Fund.

Source: http://www.cop21.gouv.fr/en/logos/ 

And this year we are going to witness COP21 in Paris. But why does this year's COP21 matter more than the previous ones?

What to expect?

During the COP21 in Paris we will witness for the first time in the history of the UNFCC and the COP conferences the attempt to achieve a legally binding and universal agreement on climate, which also involves the aim of keeping global warming below 2°C. People have become increasingly aware about the impending environmental disasters and the devastating effects on weak and poor societies, which can already be felt in various parts of the world. Hence, the media and the general public's interest and attention to the COP conferences have increased over the past years and this year's COP is expected to attract "close to 50,000 participants including 25,000 official delegates from government, intergovernmental organisations, UN agencies, NGOs and civil society" (as stated here: http://www.cop21paris.org).

There is already a stark contrast in the level of commitment by the participating head of state's compared to the COP held in Copenhagen. While the world leaders only turned up towards the end of the two week long conference in Copenhagen, which ended in no clear agreement that could have been signed and without any viable road map, President Obama, Chancellor Merkel, PM David Cameron along with other major world leaders such as Xi Jinping of China and Narendra Modi of India, are expected to attend the conference from the beginning. Furthermore, certain concessions have already been made ahead of the conference. Such as: 

• 40% emissions cut commitment by the EU compared with 1990 levels by 2030.
• 26%-28% emissions cut commitment by the US compared with 2005 levels by 2030.
• China agreed that its emissions will peak by 2030 and decrease thereafter. 

Those targets cover some of the biggest GHG emitters worldwide and it can be said that they will most likely be agreed on in Paris.

COP21 - bone of contention

Source: Fratelli dell'Uomo Onlus 'Energia solare a Malika, Dakar'. 

Even though it does seem like a straight forward deal, there are contentions which will most probably lead to hour long meetings all through the night. Poor and developing nations want to ensure that they receive financial aid which allows them to invest in clean technology that will mitigate GHG emissions, and also funding, that enables them to adapt their infrastructure to climate change damage. They have been given assurance of financial aid which will last until 2020, but the real bone of contention will be what happens after 2020. The poor nations want that financial assurances by the developed nations are made beyond 2020. How this will be done will cause major disagreements. Where will the money come from? Only from the developed nations? From their public purse? Or should international development banks be involved more? What the outcome of these debates will be is rather difficult to predict. And after the terrible terrorist attacks in Paris, there is the possibility that the climate change debates among the world leaders will be overshadowed by discussions on how to combat terror and not so much on global emission reduction agreements and financial aid for the poorer nations

There are definitely high hopes for this year's COP and I will keep an eye on the discussions between the world leaders and also on the civil society movements that accompany the COP21 conference. Maybe we will write history in Paris.